The Monero/US Dollar (XMR/USD) pair launched its bull run on November 22, 2017 when it took out $150 resistance. The breakout was able to attract so much momentum that the pair went as high as $477 on December 20. At this point, however, the pair was in extreme overbought territory as it grew by 218% in less than a month. This prompted breakout players to dump positions.
Faced with intense selling pressure, the market dipped to $151.26 on December 22. While XMR/USD erased almost all of its gains two days after it hit the peak, bottom pickers stepped in to push the price to $449.18 on January 15, 2018. The lower high snuffed out the market’s bullish steam. As a result, it revisited $150 support on February 6. The market bounced as bulls defended the support, but it generated another lower high of $379.90 on March 5 to create a pattern that can be tradeable.
Technical analysis show that Monero/US Dollar appears to have a created a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart. This pattern has a reputation for being a bearish structure, but the range can be traded. So far, it appears that the pair is on track to hit $150 support. We’ll bottom pick the market, and sell at the resistance which is most likely to be the next lower high.
The strategy is to buy as close to $150 as possible. If bulls hold on to the support, they will likely use it to climb to our target of $280. Sell immediately because the market has a bearish bias. The process can take less than a month.
Daily Chart of Monero/US Dollar on Bitfinex
As of this writing, the Monero/US Dollar pair is trading at $171.20 on Bitfinex.
Summary of Strategy
Buy: As close to $150 as possible.
Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.